TC:NOVA Wipe Poll Results

[Ekowraith]

• That the staff closed the poll and erred on the side of the minority. If it were at all in doubt, why not make the choice that most people favored?
  
• That the justifications for closing the poll rewarded the exact bad behavior it claimed to punish. ("No" voters were more likely to have dupe votes because dupers had something to gain by voting no.)
  
• That staff very likely changed the poll by adding and removing votes to lessen the severity of their minority-pandering decision.

[Kraschman]

Originally Posted by Ekowraith

• That the staff closed the poll and erred on the side of the minority. If it were at all in doubt, why not make the choice that most people favored?

Perhaps because they was doubt that the "most people favoured" figures were any more accurate? If the veracity of the vote is in question, I'd rather they continue with the status quo than go with what may be padded vote numbers.

• That the justifications for closing the poll rewarded the exact bad behavior it claimed to punish. ("No" voters were more likely to have dupe votes because dupers had something to gain by voting no.)

And yes voters would have incentive to dupe votes to make sure the wipe went through.

• That staff very likely changed the poll by adding and removing votes to lessen the severity of their minority-pandering decision.

And you have evidence of this?

[Ekowraith]

Originally Posted by Kraschman

[/list]
Perhaps because they was doubt that the "most people favoured" figures were any more accurate? If the veracity of the vote is in question, I'd rather they continue with the status quo than go with what may be padded vote numbers.[/list]

It is reasonable to assume that vote padding occurred on both sides. EVEN IF that 15% of the "yes" vote was padded and 0% of the "no" vote was padded, there was STILL a majority of people in favor of wiping the server! More likely is that the padding occurred equally on both sides, and "yes" votes still DOUBLED "no" votes.

And yes voters would have incentive to dupe votes to make sure the wipe went through.

Which side, do you think, would have a greater portion of its votes derived from duping? The side from which in-game dupers would prosper personally, or the side where they wouldn't? Both "yes" and "no" surely had an equal share of non-dupers who padded the vote. But the "no" side won the votes of people who have an in-game history of duping.

And you have evidence of this?

Yes. Look at the before and after poll-closing screenshots from page 14.

Abstract:

For those "no" voters who argue that the poll is inaccurate: do you think the margin of error is 15% towards the yes side? Even though in-game dupers would clearly vote "no"?

[Kraschman]

Originally Posted by Ekowraith

It is reasonable to assume that vote padding occurred on both sides. EVEN IF that 15% of the "yes" vote was padded and 0% of the "no" vote was padded, there was STILL a majority of people in favor of wiping the server! More likely is that the padding occurred equally on both sides, and "yes" votes still DOUBLED "no" votes.

Since you have no evidence of the breakup of possible dupe votes, this is merely speculation on your part. The vote could have gone in any direction.

Which side, do you think, would have a greater portion of its votes derived from duping? The side from which in-game dupers would prosper personally, or the side where they wouldn't? Both "yes" and "no" surely had an equal share of non-dupers who padded the vote. But the "no" side won the votes of people who have an in-game history of duping.

Your talking about probabilities. That doesn't necessarily mean that's what actually occured. It's highly improbable to get struck by lightning, yet people do despite the odds.

Yes. Look at the before and after poll-closing screenshots from page 14.

And said screenshots prove what exactly? There are votes removed from both yes and no sides as I see them, apparently obvious dupe votes removed as same. That in no way obviates the possibility that many others that were counted were duped as well.

Let's put it this way. Say we're voting for Mayor of Springfield, and Sideshow Bob is leading, and there's a strong chance of vote fraud. Do you put Bob in despite the chance he got in crookedly? Or throw the whole vote out and perhaps start from scratch when you can get a relatively clean vote?

Fact is, the vote was borked, and they choose to continue on with the status quo for the moment rather than go with fudged numbers, regardless of the outcome. I see no problem here.

[Adler1984]

Originally Posted by Kraschman

Since you have no evidence of the breakup of possible dupe votes, this is merely speculation on your part. The vote could have gone in any direction.Your talking about probabilities. That doesn't necessarily mean that's what actually occured. It's highly improbable to get struck by lightning, yet people do despite the odds.And said screenshots prove what exactly? There are votes removed from both yes and no sides as I see them, apparently obvious dupe votes removed as same. That in no way obviates the possibility that many others that were counted were duped as well.

Let's put it this way. Say we're voting for Mayor of Springfield, and Sideshow Bob is leading, and there's a strong chance of vote fraud. Do you put Bob in despite the chance he got in crookedly? Or throw the whole vote out and perhaps start from scratch when you can get a relatively clean vote?

Fact is, the vote was borked, and they choose to continue on with the status quo for the moment rather than go with fudged numbers, regardless of the outcome. I see no problem here.

/agree

[safak]

Originally Posted by Kraschman

Since you have no evidence of the breakup of possible dupe votes, this is merely speculation on your part. The vote could have gone in any direction.Your talking about probabilities. That doesn't necessarily mean that's what actually occured. It's highly improbable to get struck by lightning, yet people do despite the odds.And said screenshots prove what exactly? There are votes removed from both yes and no sides as I see them, apparently obvious dupe votes removed as same. That in no way obviates the possibility that many others that were counted were duped as well.

well 2 points to make here.

1. the only way it has been verified, the 'ghost votes', is on the NO side. so people will tend to think they were the culprits the entire time, since they were already found guilty of it.

2. yes, a vote or 2 was removed from both sides. noone is quite sure why/how that happened. but that isn't the point of the screenshots, the point was that right as the poll was closed, many votes in a row went to the same 15% answer... barely pushing it under that 2/3rd mark.
which is, without someone with access to it screwing with it, impossible.
there is less than a 1 in 100 billion chance of 20 votes in a row legitimately going toward a 15% answer in a poll of this sample size.

[Kraschman]

Originally Posted by safak

well 2 points to make here.

1. the only way it has been verified, the 'ghost votes', is on the NO side. so people will tend to think they were the culprits the entire time, since they were already found guilty of it.

2. yes, a vote or 2 was removed from both sides. noone is quite sure why/how that happened. but that isn't the point of the screenshots, the point was that right as the poll was closed, many votes in a row went to the same 15% answer... barely pushing it under that 2/3rd mark.
which is, without someone with access to it screwing with it, impossible.
there is less than a 1 in 100 billion percent chance of 20 votes in a row legitimately going toward a 15% answer in a poll of this sample size.

And again, no evidence that the preceding votes were all legit. Therefore ALL the votes are suspect. So scrap the vote and go with the status quo until you can get a clean vote. Which they've done.

[Ekowraith]

Originally Posted by Kraschman

And again, no evidence that the preceding votes were all legit. Therefore ALL the votes are suspect. So scrap the vote and go with the status quo until you can get a clean vote. Which they've done.

What possible set of circumstances could lead to 16% of yes votes being fraudulent, and 0% of no votes being fraudulent? Again, this is the only way it could be that the poll wouldn't show that a majority of people were not in favor of the wipe.

[kookaburra]

Originally Posted by safak

there is less than a 1 in 100 billion chance of 20 votes in a row legitimately going toward a 15% answer in a poll of this sample size.

I was thinking to myself "why pull numbers out of your butt like that?".

Then I opened the calculator.....